{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
  "slug": "parana-governor-election-winner-20260608205118343",
  "question": "Will the 2026 Paraná Governor Election be won by the incumbent or a challenger?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "brazil",
    "paraná",
    "2026",
    "gubernatorial"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, scheduled for October 5, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as eighteen parallel binary contracts, one per named candidate plus catch-all buckets. Probabilities across all contracts must sum to one, so implied odds on each candidate are directly comparable. Resolution follows TSE certification, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FMYRY3HNY0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.81,
    "implied_probability": 0.81
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FMYRY3HNY0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x67a28cbd0e3454c2b040495b376dddb2cb2c415fa817f5d845a949c980c0ce55",
      "question": "Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Sergio Moro: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 17160.693264999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "governor",
        "paraná",
        "sergio moro"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0YK521HM53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaed54039defce08ebd704cb4866da6634437c7194402bfaa5d29e608689ff8a9",
      "question": "Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Requião Filho: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 638.1441440000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "requi filho"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-317X29WJ14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7675a17468a652c555a702773eaeeb6004b55dfccd129dd40884856e7779411",
      "question": "Will Rafael Greca win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rafael Greca: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 351.89961500000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "governor",
        "paraná",
        "rafael greca"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SRTMW0JZL2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x380c9a15ab5696c4aa8114a6fd565644a43af6f0f5b620a19eba9efe45a63589",
      "question": "Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Guto Silva: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.071,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "paraná"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CG387M04W3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x312829c65fa5618e76f91b8524eced224fe341b2ba1f5017858292102e603c25",
      "question": "Will Alexandre Curi win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alexandre Curi: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 451.691665,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "paraná"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WH81K3LHG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7daef0fa8234e751436ec017d3682cb2f670ced2da053703f3cc1e3a11e7ff00",
      "question": "Will Beto Richa win the Governor of Paraná election?",
      "description": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consens",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Beto Richa: The named candidate wins if certified as elected by Brazil's Electoral Justice authority (TSE) following the October 4, 2026 gubernatorial election or October 25, 2026 runoff, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
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          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.035,
      "implied_probability": 0.035,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 370.63822200000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "brazil",
        "governor",
        "paraná"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SWR75NMY82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5be26b00a5232ed346669397f8d01f19d12f3f10527b2a445588669c4b9f6e40",
      "question": "Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-05T03:59:00Z",
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    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-30MTDWQ1F2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}