{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
  "slug": "peak-us-national-debt-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the US National Debt peak before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "us-national-debt",
    "fiscal-policy",
    "economics",
    "2026",
    "milestone-tracking",
    "macroeconomic-indicators"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether U.S. national debt crosses discrete dollar thresholds before 2027. Each Polymarket contract prices a separate strike level, from $39 trillion to $42 trillion, creating an implicit probability ladder. Higher strikes carry lower implied probabilities, embedding a term-structure of debt-ceiling risk. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the U.S. Treasury Department's TreasuryDirect.gov debt tracker.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-18HMZKVP07",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.969,
    "implied_probability": 0.969
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PRD64S9JT0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc5d9018b5932771bb50e0f297bda85a1adb34b027ef579800449e451d01912cb",
      "question": "Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$39 trillion: U.S. Treasury Department's treasurydirect.gov debt tracker resolves whether the listed threshold is reached by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-20T22:59:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "treasurydirect.gov",
            "url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Treasury Department",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
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            "name": "treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury Department",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 39000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-84ADFE1773",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "macro",
        "us national debt",
        "us-debt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-18HMZKVP07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83c948109c75656cc3a996b589052be0d06f68ebb016a14f82b0ded1faaa05ad",
      "question": "Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$40 trillion: U.S. Treasury Department's treasurydirect.gov debt tracker resolves whether the listed threshold is reached by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "treasurydirect.gov",
            "url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Treasury Department",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury Department",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.969,
      "implied_probability": 0.969,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5819.286935000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-76D6821A2E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "macro",
        "us national debt",
        "us-debt"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B7R0WY13F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc552c2d96a844be039ad665435bef6d2b256e304ebc596a0c2fca40e3340c20b",
      "question": "Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$41 trillion: U.S. Treasury Department's treasurydirect.gov debt tracker resolves whether the listed threshold is reached by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "treasurydirect.gov",
            "url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Treasury Department",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury Department",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.5,
      "implied_probability": 0.5,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2,
      "volume_total_usd": 638.5421840000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 41000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-B59DA1CDD1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "macro",
        "us national debt",
        "us-debt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PLJF1RGXP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f9a27523f446ac64949dbbf8dfb385e9e7cc3516aec0a3c3a7cae9ca4df63b5",
      "question": "Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$42 trillion: U.S. Treasury Department's treasurydirect.gov debt tracker resolves whether the listed threshold is reached by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current",
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        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5283.423352000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 42000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C296C1AD87",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "macro",
        "us national debt",
        "us-debt"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PRD64S9JT0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-20T22:59:13Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-KP8NCHXC90",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}