{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
  "slug": "peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021",
  "question": "Will the People's Bank of China change its rate by September 30?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "central-banking",
    "china-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "pboc"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the People's Bank of China adjusts its 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026. Three binary contracts cover the full directional outcome set: increase, decrease, or no change. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official People's Bank of China announcements. The three contracts are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, so implied probabilities should sum to 100%.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TFZXG4K023",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.56,
    "implied_probability": 0.56
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RPJNXRPV08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x63fde4103c91a9cc7fd3aedc3b08c09b7f60b1064c45d007632705f5c6380692",
      "question": "Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China St",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase: People's Bank of China official announcements resolve whether the 7-day reverse repo rate changes by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM CST, per pbc.gov.cn.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "pbc.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "PBoC Open Market Operations announcements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "pbc.gov.cn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 1520.6668869999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-20AA982C53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "monetary-policy",
        "pboc",
        "people bank china"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFZXG4K023",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bd4a5ddccf72032afd6260ec54ee225a591b2d82f3fa257da1c8b87ae51e59b",
      "question": "Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China St",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: People's Bank of China official announcements resolve whether the 7-day reverse repo rate changes by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM CST, per pbc.gov.cn.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "pbc.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "PBoC Open Market Operations announcements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "pbc.gov.cn",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.56,
      "implied_probability": 0.56,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15,
      "volume_total_usd": 9471.620611999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E17FF70504",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "monetary-policy",
        "pboc",
        "people bank china"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MJPXC09161",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcee3e41d7e686f9ccbe57eb7af61f04c8835b991cb2566d90c93ca5e8b733ede",
      "question": "Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China St",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease: People's Bank of China official announcements resolve whether the 7-day reverse repo rate changes by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM CST, per pbc.gov.cn.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).\n\nAn “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nA “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.\n\nIf the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.\n\nAn official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "pbc.gov.cn",
            "url": "https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "PBoC Open Market Operations announcements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "pbc.gov.cn",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 8687.862232000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-61597A4868",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "monetary-policy",
        "pboc",
        "people bank china"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5B2XRCRCJ9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}