{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQ2Q1Z3T59",
  "slug": "poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Pierre Poilievre be out as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "canadian-politics",
    "conservative-party-leadership",
    "political-leadership",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Pierre Poilievre will cease to be Conservative Party of Canada leader before December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the outcome directly. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official announcements from Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada. No cross-platform structural contrast exists here; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-885LVJYGD6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-885LVJYGD6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MQ2Q1Z3T59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x189fc3a42652bc98e40592bbdee43cb8160315310ce535a4fa37fd838da64e72",
      "question": "Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada regarding his leadership status, with consensus of credible news sources as fallback.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.666664,
      "volume_total_usd": 154589.38396599982,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "conservative party",
        "leadership",
        "pierre poilievre conservative",
        "poilievre"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MQ2Q1Z3T59",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}