{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
  "slug": "predictfun-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Predict.fun FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      500000000,
      600000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50000000,
        "prob": 95
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000000,
        "prob": 90
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200000000,
        "prob": 77
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 70
      },
      {
        "threshold": 400000000,
        "prob": 65
      },
      {
        "threshold": 500000000,
        "prob": 50
      },
      {
        "threshold": 600000000,
        "prob": 40
      },
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 33
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 25
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500000000,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 6
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "token-launch",
    "predict-fun",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of the Predict.fun governance token one day after its launch. FDV is calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading venue. Eleven binary strike thresholds span $50M to $2B, forming an implied probability distribution over launch-day valuation. All eleven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WQ1W9WT6B4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.44,
    "implied_probability": 0.44
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RXK0PS6L4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe4565b7036d214d87f03d82ed44b6e0db1b05c972d358b22e78aa9b68da1850a",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.913,
      "implied_probability": 0.913,
      "volume_24h_usd": 495.04904899999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 481537.3916349992,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-CE31A03F89",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HN09Z46M36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9bdb3d58c76c0f3c1ef757407fac0ee75110d08958cce0c2c73e3d657e5b1ee4",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "volume_24h_usd": 107.79,
      "volume_total_usd": 493733.2231049996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-83AC8D104B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9C5C3XQVB5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9c50945d1c32e7e8db53675b9703a5d7759e37708a21af39a1deff1a1df73d5e",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "volume_24h_usd": 117,
      "volume_total_usd": 1080307.5779930009,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DC55A04A44",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC717RPFS5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f8e3b1182b374df1bf77b13af59e9e25182b3a1b936994a1f0176d9db6663f3",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.666665,
      "volume_total_usd": 1028730.0723800011,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-29087F5337",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZN9JLWWFK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x44af70916025f6ee9183cbdb77bcea14ee54e5534b0820d2df7934d1cadeb167",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$400M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.67,
      "implied_probability": 0.67,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3255.303029,
      "volume_total_usd": 747742.3310469998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D09ED03192",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3L5NCM5C1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23ad896f6bc3f17aebe9bc04f7febbc0d5a2d6af4e33caf6af265f6369cf1ade",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 690094.4485840007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2EF4D18D58",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQ1W9WT6B4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa94cb7859bc740f711ff5770705b60db07c606d785eda205c7623b854ad943bd",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$600M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 95.544135,
      "volume_total_usd": 307696.9804560002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D7BE89194A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P7ZL3WGM43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x4a5969c9ea3edaca58bce54c2d2bda9208802ce4672dd71bdab22a46b66753c3",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14.53,
      "volume_total_usd": 239416.56001299998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-13CAC80CEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0BZ65Y3BF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22f1b2d9494340727bd949b2be955d42c643442eb581edbc3b6085315cea227a",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.311,
      "implied_probability": 0.311,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5585.865888999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 496232.10592199926,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C58BDE2C8B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JHRZBYZ73",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82b303898d959f2d87fa73af6a66625ecfb36e4b2c240a9d30b2e71e9987adb5",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.5B: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.204,
      "implied_probability": 0.204,
      "volume_24h_usd": 702.189112,
      "volume_total_usd": 103888.67002600004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-47A2199AA0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RB95YQ2ZK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6b86d82a259b13e797ab4add905ae8af945c1711f20dc06ecd9cdc8b8007eb98",
      "question": "Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2B: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price on the most liquid trading source at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.125,
      "implied_probability": 0.125,
      "volume_24h_usd": 241.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 219715.28658399964,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FFD77402A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "predict fdv",
        "predict.fun",
        "token launch"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8SCMJ63WZ4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}