{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
  "slug": "probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will the fully diluted valuation be above ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "launch-metrics",
    "token-economics",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of Probable's governance token one day after its launch. Each binary asks whether FDV clears a discrete strike, ranging from $50M to $1B. The eight strikes form an implied probability curve across FDV outcomes. Polymarket resolves each contract via the UMA Optimistic Oracle using the most liquid public price source multiplied by total token supply at 4:00 UTC.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DFX3N312B2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFX3N312B2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4b5d821d5b477953ac6ace9ec9155cf1a65e52780cd4d4b443ccce216cd79b1c",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 565.64,
      "volume_total_usd": 95518.28870100004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-438D1DA176",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V75LGGD017",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xedef61bebfc58d0d6e890f6fa8c277f7da8a0a0df71180ae49efd90ee037925f",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.061,
      "implied_probability": 0.061,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.67,
      "volume_total_usd": 37429.63237700001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-AD59A7FDAD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GVRKQ6K139",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb597a6a7f4720d228a1ce9976ba46d3281e041b3d062b5399da500258cbd2da9",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.038,
      "implied_probability": 0.038,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8367.022598999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-92C7D135E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4M9V1JHS8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ff60bd285eb7f33fa1a5acef5e5a6a876c8635b134518f28e61f3acef546e9c",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4765.749315999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8646B12F1F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJBSHRN8G5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf4514becb361afd680466e3606f37987fd5ac935305fe2195137c6b9180c204c",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$400M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.093,
      "implied_probability": 0.093,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 650.5137729999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5E3D44589E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-03RNWLC495",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5870f0480b48e0c89a3245cbce3d7f1bddeb95ffc13ed5b7c5c6f3e9eaf0f1f",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.071,
      "implied_probability": 0.071,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1675.0795519999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA0DBADB8C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5837G5X617",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa9e02ddf507d5db703833c985899989a0debe08caa4bd80fccf2b774b6c960d4",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 3070.7255289999985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-C3E5D456FA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JYXW8K9Z60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a85bc92e7a8fa5bc58dce15a419c06aa075b924f186207d5d8726642a8b9a46",
      "question": "Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The most liquid publicly available price source for the governance token, multiplied by total token supply, at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after active public trading launch, determines FDV status by January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/0xProbable",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1021.1440470000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1DCED65AF9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "probable fdv",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-P94VVV9CX0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}