{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
  "slug": "puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Puffpaw FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      50000000,
      100000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 50000000,
        "prob": 64
      },
      {
        "threshold": 100000000,
        "prob": 49
      },
      {
        "threshold": 200000000,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 300000000,
        "prob": 6
      },
      {
        "threshold": 400000000,
        "prob": 8
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-metric",
    "puffpaw",
    "2027",
    "price-discovery"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These five Polymarket markets track Puffpaw's fully diluted valuation one day after token launch. Each market sets a discrete FDV strike threshold: $50M, $100M, $200M, $300M, and $400M. Together they form an implied probability distribution across valuation tiers. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with FDV calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid venue.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-P8SCPZYNB4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6PJSZ5K526",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8bcbc39541f2d12c9e4ec1ac4d181d6aada34852301c38d64cf5db3929b7c327",
      "question": "Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The listed token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total token supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, measured at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "puffpaw.xyz",
            "url": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 681.559081,
      "volume_total_usd": 1486538.2369071823,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FC429E81B6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "puffpaw",
        "puffpaw fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9PCPLN2NG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x300c5d497f713edd1c2cc30754b7ae6f1f05f2e8e1ca03c6d3e28eee7ff9e729",
      "question": "Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The listed token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total token supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, measured at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "puffpaw.xyz",
            "url": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.112,
      "implied_probability": 0.112,
      "volume_24h_usd": 102.61,
      "volume_total_usd": 771408.9478139789,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E6DE2877A2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "puffpaw",
        "puffpaw fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P8SCPZYNB4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x23969ec06514ad241fda435742187a08c1b2b2d0b5080f0c0751c9dc0f2d886b",
      "question": "Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The listed token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total token supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, measured at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "puffpaw.xyz",
            "url": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 645.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 1666306.8187889715,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-FFA2B50DC5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "puffpaw",
        "puffpaw fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8541YM8L5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x62b44acd817f0133bda1c8d05e396ed56ab6af72d1f25b8c5ea50f0344379d05",
      "question": "Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The listed token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total token supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, measured at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "puffpaw.xyz",
            "url": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 604711.8144009775,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1871C30BDA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "puffpaw",
        "puffpaw fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1Z0DQSTDB6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x88a19761fa049ae36da8a403464db9f356a7ea7d0163415052ed748bf72a20bf",
      "question": "Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$400M: The listed token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total token supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, measured at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, determines resolution via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Puffpaw's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Puffpaw (https://www.puffpaw.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "puffpaw.xyz",
            "url": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.puffpaw.xyz/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.073,
      "implied_probability": 0.073,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 900250.1586430123,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-63ED890143",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "puffpaw",
        "puffpaw fdv",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2N85PDKKY1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}