{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "russia",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026",
    "head-of-state"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Vladimir Putin will have left the Russian presidency by each respective deadline. The contracts form a sequential term structure, with near-dated strikes in mid-2026 and a tail contract extending to June 2027. Implied probability should increase monotonically across tenors; deviations signal disagreement on near-term versus medium-term transition risk. All five contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BHG4Y576V6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.06,
    "implied_probability": 0.06,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BHG4Y576V6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d",
      "question": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 42592.520705,
      "volume_total_usd": 20077341.82433698,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T18:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:09:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 274685.321835,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-70MXGG42B8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd5dd1a5398c0b428035211c83348af8b97d2b31f72cf198bdbadcfb3538ca2d4",
      "question": "Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T18:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T18:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T02:00:43.438Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1079267.556315,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "political-event",
        "putin",
        "putin out as",
        "russia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2ZS54MW3T9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc788500313fb20ebab5b6577c3dcfc24e911e44e45c3aebabb8eee4bb70f4431",
      "question": "Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T18:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T18:30:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Q6X77K483",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcbac06e53a332298ba921cac34bf293bc9bdfd0aeccb37e6f7f1d100956fbe3c",
      "question": "Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within thi",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NDN5ZR4CR8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:09:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}