{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
  "slug": "relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will Relay's fully diluted valuation exceed ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "launch-event",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "relay-token",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of the Relay governance token one day after its launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by price, sourced from CoinGecko. Ten strike thresholds span $100M to $1.5B, each binary. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Markets close January 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2FJ3X6NX8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q2FJ3X6NX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc9f02df8613beff1bfd7fd9536f0eca2e3db5f3b5052e9f7ea44627da2ef2a1e",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 19666.346696000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-0180723AB7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-10CXBK8005",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3bef83e71dffc4240584e748b3aeb6eb0369f0c2a6e9512eef3bdc349a74865f",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3242.2209900000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-EEEEEB3F48",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LF1HJSM6G6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d80725b371d70e726f29bf536218aea076b7d67e9058a24462b061c04f277b2",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9072.291372999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-22CD132E3E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L80QRV7879",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ea3bfa0c978191b52596309368f6de493fd107922299291fa869590033345b5",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $600M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$600M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 399.43652299999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 600000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-401D2497F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B5ZWG6PN70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd47be9959a64cbad1646f3c56d0f699f332c27711f88c71a4045597c51fc772",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $700M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$700M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 35.82,
      "volume_total_usd": 2975.183791,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 700000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-92AF3346E6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KCV6RTGNZ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x37ca4ebab4b629208249269b8d51fd15639270f1fb7fbbc8a6154b521fe6bfd6",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $800M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1463.9875599999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5D4ED28A18",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C18DCL77P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc31c1da1e110fcc40b6e17ffb4b56f3311ab933da01b36eae4f79b9c20d329e2",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$900M: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.078,
      "implied_probability": 0.078,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.799999999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 1609.846379,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 900000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-5598E2E026",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W46B8YBFV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f1b08697ee34df255b5d3ef37700628274b7853dca0079fd2c625e426ec57c2",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.087,
      "implied_probability": 0.087,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2050.3462250000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DB494FBF15",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XNMWS131H8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xadadc25e22d384c67f8246c65bd0384403d1c85696cf6877dce9769c659abdfe",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.2B: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.083,
      "implied_probability": 0.083,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 552.971477,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-29EBADEFB0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C42DZBCF58",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd3418d802705364c542cedb26f665d75b9dceac7a0377490511cf631e6dddaed",
      "question": "Relay FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.5B: The referenced governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by price from the most liquid trading source, at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Relay's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Relay (https://x.com/Relayprotocol) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/Relayprotocol",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.034,
      "implied_probability": 0.034,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1163.5967220000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F2B6AB419E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "relay",
        "token-launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-B8YVJCTFN8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}