{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
  "slug": "republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections",
  "question": "Will Republicans win more than 218 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "house-seats",
    "2026-midterms",
    "us-congress",
    "republican-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican Party's House seat total following the November 2026 midterm elections. Polymarket structures the event as ten discrete seat-count tiers, ranging from below 190 to 230 or more, each resolving as a binary outcome. Together the tiers function as a continuous distribution over possible Republican seat counts. Resolution relies on the Clerk of the House of Representatives' certified seat count, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VKS2CTS0L7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.03,
    "implied_probability": 0.03
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WVR8GP3LS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa2e43598547f2e90e3eee195812c8814202b9b66f6c540d7e15a265cbe93f68f",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Below 190: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.66,
      "volume_total_usd": 30243.259831000007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 190,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "republican house seats",
        "republicans",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6JF2WQK3G0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x18cc1dd29f0b816135d5337cebae4d1f8b42a2c8b951e893936f35fd235ecc94",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "190-194: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 71.42857,
      "volume_total_usd": 13293.064451,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 190,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "republican house seats",
        "republicans",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NQSFC9QKT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6af312109c285d70f39a4f8d8e3d4a2e7e12bcabe5ab03527396a3a1377925d",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "195-199: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 76.923075,
      "volume_total_usd": 32062.585845,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 195,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "republican house seats",
        "republicans",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WWW3P17X90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7ff4e4b2f389acdd96ef18bb34684b9219a972b7ef0cde5856d28f5d5325f3d4",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "200-204: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.114,
      "implied_probability": 0.114,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 24407.866265,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "threshold": 200,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
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        "republicans",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F518LCQBX6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x55f8333c05a9693135c74efeb660c473d9b7a46c02be73ce828914313dda5faf",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "205-209: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.087,
      "implied_probability": 0.087,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 38902.306632999986,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 205,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "republican house seats",
        "republicans",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MJL6CM9GG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf301c0842eeb33bd0a7718e4775bfb98b326a28bf837e18d65057e3516a5f6cb",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "210-214: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.098,
      "implied_probability": 0.098,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14774.235682,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 210,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026-midterms",
        "house",
        "republican house seats",
        "republicans",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8NWSYHH45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0d8711f5f475002d8236dcf4c848882aee7a2f34a515dda6ff0623906bf862a3",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "215-219: The official seat count certified by the Clerk of the House of Representatives following all November 2026 House elections and any associated runoffs conclusively called by November 2026 determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolu",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
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      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
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