{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GG8SG4PVN5",
  "slug": "republican-trifecta-with-supermajority-in-the-senate",
  "question": "Will Republicans win a trifecta with a Senate supermajority in the midterms?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "republicans",
    "trifecta",
    "senate-supermajority",
    "2026-midterms",
    "us-elections"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Republicans will control the House, Senate, and presidency while holding 60 or more Senate seats after the November 2026 midterms. The binary outcome prices the joint probability of a trifecta and a Senate supermajority simultaneously. Resolution draws from official Federal Election Commission results and House and Senate clerk certifications. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement against those certified outputs.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-21YN8KYW14",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.052,
    "implied_probability": 0.052
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-21YN8KYW14",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GG8SG4PVN5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8ffc79497e28506895f59a72288ef924ce98481c8b0341281fdd786e9489668",
      "question": "Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?",
      "description": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official results from the Federal Election Commission and Senate/House clerk offices for the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, including any runoffs concluded by the resolution date.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Associated Press",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Fox News",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "NBC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official certification",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
        "source_mechanism": "quorum",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "volume_24h_usd": 216.707287,
      "volume_total_usd": 165015.47382399905,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2022-midterms",
        "senate",
        "supermajority",
        "trifecta",
        "us republican party",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GG8SG4PVN5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}