{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
  "slug": "reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
  "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in August?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "rba-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "australian-economy",
    "central-bank-decision",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy rate decision at its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting. Polymarket structures the event as five mutually exclusive directional binaries, spanning 50+ bps cuts to 50+ bps hikes. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the RBA's official post-meeting statement. Together the contracts imply a full probability distribution across discrete rate outcomes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XC5GM07Q28",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.83,
    "implied_probability": 0.83
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MK16VCZ0Z0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1cf3622a379181e9776801cfd93fabd909b3871d82de486e039d5b778042d685",
      "question": "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps decrease: The Reserve Bank of Australia's official statement from its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting will determine the basis point change in the cash rate target.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of \"Increase\" or \"Decrease\" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.\n\nIf the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No Change\" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au",
            "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 498.41166599999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 2853.2633180000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -50,
      "question_id": "CMX-093CFAFBC6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest-rates",
        "rba",
        "rba cash rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-872706S6M9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6fccf1dc1483aa8ccd8a230549bc3eccd63de5e7b7e1449f15e4805994e8191a",
      "question": "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps decrease: The Reserve Bank of Australia's official statement from its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting will determine the basis point change in the cash rate target.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of \"Increase\" or \"Decrease\" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.\n\nIf the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No Change\" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au",
            "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 579.794,
      "volume_total_usd": 4813.148692,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": -25,
      "question_id": "CMX-A7FCE3A0F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest-rates",
        "rba",
        "rba cash rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC5GM07Q28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c39e2ee7d85026ab1e23dd0ad927676f4c5b122051effafbe7764f817dbdc37",
      "question": "No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No change: The Reserve Bank of Australia's official statement from its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting will determine the basis point change in the cash rate target.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of \"Increase\" or \"Decrease\" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.\n\nIf the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No Change\" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au",
            "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11886.481936,
      "volume_total_usd": 28021.773956000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-A2CD32C771",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest-rates",
        "rba",
        "rba cash rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FHXLDPLQ74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1522ada3f83e1a97a6ec5d83e8df4e7bffda7e3d83793931e70634a3e3dfa0cb",
      "question": "Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "25 bps increase: The Reserve Bank of Australia's official statement from its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting will determine the basis point change in the cash rate target.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of \"Increase\" or \"Decrease\" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.\n\nIf the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No Change\" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au",
            "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.173,
      "implied_probability": 0.173,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2340.345505,
      "volume_total_usd": 19559.158483999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-B5BE184402",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest-rates",
        "rba",
        "rba cash rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HNFV9KKHW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb3a257ccb05531f71ff7a1bc926cbac4668b0168a5643c8f5f52b38a0610b5be",
      "question": "Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Re",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "50+ bps increase: The Reserve Bank of Australia's official statement from its August 10-11, 2026 monetary policy meeting will determine the basis point change in the cash rate target.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of \"Increase\" or \"Decrease\" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.\n\nIf the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No Change\" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au",
            "url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": 429.799,
      "volume_total_usd": 2654.1259,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50,
      "question_id": "CMX-F707B231D3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "australia",
        "interest-rates",
        "rba",
        "rba cash rate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}