{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VG0VTGX014",
  "slug": "reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-august-20260630194149522",
  "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India make a decision in August?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "economic-policy",
    "india",
    "central-banking",
    "monetary-policy"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee's August 5, 2026 rate decision. Three mutually exclusive Polymarket contracts cover each directional outcome: increase, decrease, or no change to the policy repo rate. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the MPC's official post-meeting press release. Probabilities across the three contracts must sum to approximately 100%, making relative pricing a clean read on consensus direction.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ9J5XXBC1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.988,
    "implied_probability": 0.988
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1H5N1CV0C0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VG0VTGX014",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4f6248c0ee936d78139782303ba2fd1507e2e8c3b4eb3abd50fa50dd59141bf1",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. I",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease: The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee press release issued after the August 5, 2026 meeting will determine whether the policy repo rate changed relative to its prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of India",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of India",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.3125,
      "volume_total_usd": 1326.871541,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D4E778378",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "india",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates",
        "rbi",
        "rbi policy repo"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ9J5XXBC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VG0VTGX014",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x47fa470093b17a1c46055726b60a1d2f0482f301c82bfff0ff4be8eb8ae4420f",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. I",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee press release issued after the August 5, 2026 meeting will determine whether the policy repo rate changed relative to its prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.988,
      "implied_probability": 0.988,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2478.502363,
      "volume_total_usd": 20401.939650000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-42AD323775",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "india",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates",
        "rbi",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3GDM3LJYC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VG0VTGX014",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb874951507feadfbdcf0c34fb8c3d85590e4584f97e6feaa41ab374f89caffb7",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. I",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase: The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee press release issued after the August 5, 2026 meeting will determine whether the policy repo rate changed relative to its prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of India",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of India",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.024,
      "implied_probability": 0.024,
      "volume_24h_usd": 136.161,
      "volume_total_usd": 3739.1740999999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EBDB4F34E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "india",
        "monetary-policy",
        "rates",
        "rbi",
        "rbi policy repo"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VG0VTGX014",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}