{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z214XT8BR1",
  "slug": "reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-september-20260710022000963",
  "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make a decision in September?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "monetary-policy",
    "new-zealand",
    "central-bank",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate decision on September 2, 2026. Three Polymarket binary contracts cover each discrete outcome: increase, no change, or decrease. Together they form an exhaustive, mutually exclusive set pricing directional probability across all outcomes. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the RBNZ's official media release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GHDLXQN043",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z214XT8BR1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xda7d8803c940f25513b949fd4ba22b6d7181b8037a71f5c415ef5d2c8c411261",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their Septemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Increase: Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official media release on September 2, 2026 regarding the official cash rate decision determines whether the rate changed, remained unchanged, or moved in either direction from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "rbnz.govt.nz",
            "url": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.86,
      "implied_probability": 0.86,
      "volume_24h_usd": 100.357141,
      "volume_total_usd": 6561.723403,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-57ED630967",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "monetary-policy",
        "nzd",
        "rbnz",
        "rbnz official cash"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GHDLXQN043",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z214XT8BR1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x22f35f6206363483bb9628fd531c56326d5e791cc21dd8fe5f9e89a3df22cfe5",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their Septemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No Change: Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official media release on September 2, 2026 regarding the official cash rate decision determines whether the rate changed, remained unchanged, or moved in either direction from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.03,
      "volume_total_usd": 9538.173922,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EC0A71EFEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "monetary-policy",
        "nzd",
        "rbnz",
        "rbnz official cash"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RN9J4YZXR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z214XT8BR1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc7d9ae8d4e336683773cec2054e9b9ab4d492094b63e4892baae7ad3e8e9f1da",
      "question": "Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate after the September decision?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their Septemb",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Decrease: Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official media release on September 2, 2026 regarding the official cash rate decision determines whether the rate changed, remained unchanged, or moved in either direction from the prior level.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-02T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1952.2412359999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B6083BFF5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "monetary-policy",
        "nzd",
        "rbnz",
        "rbnz official cash"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Z214XT8BR1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}