{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T88103G5H9",
  "slug": "rfk-jr-out-by-december-31-524",
  "question": "Will RFK Jr. be out by December 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "rfk-jr",
    "cabinet-turnover",
    "2026",
    "us-government"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will vacate his HHS Secretary position by December 31, 2026. Polymarket prices the binary yes/no outcome using its UMA Optimistic Oracle for resolution. Official announcements from Kennedy or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services serve as the authoritative source. No corroborating platform structures this event differently.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NHRXKJ5K12",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.35,
    "implied_probability": 0.35
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NHRXKJ5K12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T88103G5H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6655cdb088b8cbaf6d4d3b8ac04fe4cf8b5ebe4a9f5e3778c4b13f4a7f1693cc",
      "question": "RFK Jr. Out by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services regarding his resignation or removal as HHS Secretary by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.93108,
      "volume_total_usd": 24130.215128999993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "politics",
        "rfk jr departure",
        "rfk jr."
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-T88103G5H9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}