{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6S4M4CJVM9",
  "slug": "rodrigo-paz-out-as-president-of-bolivia-by",
  "question": "Will Rodrigo Paz be out as President of Bolivia in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "bolivia",
    "executive-removal",
    "2026",
    "south-america",
    "political-transitions"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Rodrigo Paz exits the Bolivian presidency before a specified deadline. The June 30 contract offers a longer window than the May 31 contract; the spread between them prices the probability of departure in that intervening month. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Resolution occurs at the July 1, 2026 authoritative deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VCJ70HGGS7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7PFZ25Z109",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6S4M4CJVM9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe601a94acd76d756a2f6a984d28db271942290f0c485d6225771bffdb18cb9d5",
      "question": "Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 337.28999999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 14926.968595,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bolivia",
        "leadership",
        "political",
        "rodrigo paz bolivia"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCJ70HGGS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6S4M4CJVM9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61417e38588f9458c82155a13f8db6c9a95afd9a77fabe499e5630ff5f032837",
      "question": "Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T07:18:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 28001.329286999993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bolivia",
        "leadership",
        "political",
        "rodrigo paz bolivia"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7PFZ25Z109",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCJ70HGGS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T07:18:41Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-6S4M4CJVM9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}