{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JVYZGZ2NK4",
  "slug": "romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by",
  "question": "Will Romanian PM Bolojan be out of office in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "romania",
    "executive-succession",
    "political-tenure",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Romanian Prime Minister Bolojan will leave office before three sequential deadlines in 2026: May 31, June 30, and December 31. The three Polymarket contracts are structured as nested binary outcomes; earlier deadlines imply the later ones, creating an implicit term structure of political survival probability. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly observable officeholder status. A key caveat is that Romanian coalition politics can produce rapid cabinet reshuffles, making resolution criteria around voluntary resignation versus no-confidence votes potentially ambiguous.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SFK3FGSTV9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.956,
    "implied_probability": 0.956
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SFK3FGSTV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JVYZGZ2NK4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3c9f34c4c01a62b56d4273ed22cc42580586feaa41271778787aacfd4a8d0b8",
      "question": "Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.956,
      "implied_probability": 0.956,
      "volume_24h_usd": 131,
      "volume_total_usd": 310823.1776230005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bolojan",
        "nicolae bolojan romanian",
        "political",
        "prime minister",
        "romania"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DRZJWZ70H0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JVYZGZ2NK4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd492cb60df4fb9f44ef36e840720c392f68ae7ba7cbbb671a27221c5a3ecdf08",
      "question": "Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1249.678126,
      "volume_total_usd": 185067.8271069998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bolojan",
        "nicolae bolojan romanian",
        "political",
        "prime minister",
        "romania"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2B04BGK9Y5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JVYZGZ2NK4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5532406291ecc97d5211ebdb1724140f6efeb8faa7d38a82b9284471429e4477",
      "question": "Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:32:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 39164.92110200001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bolojan",
        "nicolae bolojan romanian",
        "political",
        "prime minister",
        "romania"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DRZJWZ70H0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2B04BGK9Y5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T12:32:43Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JVYZGZ2NK4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}