{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by",
  "question": "Will there be a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "ceasefire-negotiations",
    "2026-resolution",
    "international-diplomacy",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire agreement by discrete deadlines in 2026. The four Polymarket contracts share identical structure but differ only by expiry: May 31, June 30, October 31, and December 31. Each shorter-dated contract is a subset of the December 31 contract, creating an implicit term structure of ceasefire probability. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2J4CD7YNP2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.47,
    "implied_probability": 0.47
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2J4CD7YNP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8789.969003,
      "volume_total_usd": 1765300.6945269965,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "russia ukraine ceasefire",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LT5G3VBZ34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x60c6fe27d5b273f54fe30b4003c3b2553acd5f76220d9ea289343d536d6dd9ad",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10725.276125,
      "volume_total_usd": 818961.536144999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "russia ukraine ceasefire",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P81ZKMV349",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8fc1879ce3145520c750a9f4003f6534ada080acb1016664c9c266cdae46215e",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:15:34Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 817234.6580109998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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        "geopolitics",
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        "russia ukraine ceasefire",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FM3ZXFJYZ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6c3f1009a0c91ba9f7aae44aeadf86863b0d433b60f7a090fd00c945019aa32f",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspe",
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      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.\n\nA broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.\n\nOnly agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P81ZKMV349",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T12:15:34Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}