{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FN0YJT28Q5",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-diplomatic-meeting-by",
  "question": "Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "diplomacy",
    "russia-ukraine",
    "conflict-resolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russia and Ukraine hold an official diplomatic meeting by three sequential deadlines in 2026: May 31, June 30, and December 31. Each market is binary; earlier deadlines imply lower probability, creating a term-structure of diplomatic risk. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using verified reports of official diplomatic contact. The December 31 market anchors the full-year probability ceiling.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2T0RJTKQK7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2T0RJTKQK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FN0YJT28Q5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x2c9937efbf3f423350637cef0689a3f65c930738d1817c0bc7eadde76e45446c",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorizat",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves this market based on verified reports of official diplomatic meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives by May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 117138.263245,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "russia ukraine diplomatic",
        "ukraine"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FN0YJT28Q5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb092832271358be7f3c76f96fd176d89a29427121461a4058497e510adb03fe",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorizat",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves this market based on verified reports of official diplomatic meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives by May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 86.305382,
      "volume_total_usd": 58702.486284999984,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "russia ukraine diplomatic",
        "ukraine"
      ],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6H5B1XV6X5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FN0YJT28Q5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xcb334e65ea89ee98ce533a4dde88d013737526c1ab3c9b123dd023e19aa07dd1",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorizat",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves this market based on verified reports of official diplomatic meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives by May 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2093.82333,
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      "tags": [
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        "russia ukraine diplomatic",
        "ukraine"
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    }
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6H5B1XV6X5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-FN0YJT28Q5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}