{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay",
  "question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "peace-negotiations",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "multi-outcome-parlay",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement or ceasefire is confirmed by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the outcome directly. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, contingent on ceasefire confirmation by the deadline. No cross-platform structural contrast is available with only one market present.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8SCK3DRCX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SCK3DRCX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1fb51c9398ae0f164de29cfe3d53f291d4b953145c73a524135b35fb03fa6534",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire\n- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO\n- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on confirmation by December 31, 2026 that Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine's non-NATO commitment, and peace deal are all executed.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire\n- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO\n- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.73,
      "volume_total_usd": 543267.7208409995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia ukraine peace"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}