{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay",
  "question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "peace-negotiations",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "multi-outcome-parlay",
    "international-relations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the outcome directly, with no paired rate-level or margin structure on a second platform. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, contingent on public confirmation of a ceasefire and Ukraine's agreement not to join NATO. No cross-platform structural contrast exists here; one binary captures the full event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8SCK3DRCX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SCK3DRCX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1fb51c9398ae0f164de29cfe3d53f291d4b953145c73a524135b35fb03fa6534",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire\n- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO\n- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on public confirmation of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine's agreement not to join NATO, and a signed peace deal between Ukraine and Russia by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire\n- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO\n- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_source_stated",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "none",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "none",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_none"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2582.4476,
      "volume_total_usd": 616233.3858989998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceasefire",
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "russia ukraine peace"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}