{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
  "slug": "satoshis-identity-be-proven-by",
  "question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly proven?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "satoshi-nakamoto",
    "bitcoin-creator",
    "cryptographic-proof",
    "identity-verification",
    "crypto-mystery"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Satoshi Nakamoto's identity will be publicly confirmed by three sequential deadlines in 2026. Each binary contract extends the horizon: April 30, June 30, and December 31. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A nested structure means the April contract resolved by May 1, 2026 per the resolve_at timestamp.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T1WBXBHCT2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QWB055YQJ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4da12ed76b6f28f1f680268a18eb2c79d361f5581143fcb8b6a2a929025fa1a0",
      "question": "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:21:54Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 14815.087521000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CCEC13D5AA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "identity",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto identity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T1WBXBHCT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x85bdc6e5461dddf70fcb51151bed1c7668638e604d015e880081fb2d646f2733",
      "question": "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1043463.6968019997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-14D9AF5C52",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "identity",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto identity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSDP7F91J6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x002800d1a67d94f592d5d3ccfd985065a31f9869a006f1855ca2f544c965733c",
      "question": "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 140.292949,
      "volume_total_usd": 934198.9937550003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-202CDB4013",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "identity",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto identity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QWB055YQJ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T07:21:54Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L7VC3LSR44",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}