{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V7W8T6VMN4",
  "slug": "saudi-arabia-bans-us-military-aircraft-by",
  "question": "Will Saudi Arabia ban US military aircraft by a specified date?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "saudi-arabia",
    "us-military",
    "diplomatic-relations",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Saudi Arabia issues an official ban on U.S. military aircraft airspace access or base use. Three Polymarket binary contracts stagger the same outcome across May 22, May 31, and June 30 deadlines. Earlier strikes nest inside later ones, creating an implicit term structure of geopolitical risk. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring an official government announcement as the qualifying trigger.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B5SQBZYJ51",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V7W8T6VMN4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xb4ec42aaadeca8ac785c444bd70367323bf4aa2139965554a66ffb04745dd1c9",
      "question": "Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: An official announcement by the named country restricting U.S. military aircraft airspace access or base use, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 1, 2026, 12:21 PM ET, resolves Yes; otherwise No.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:21:36Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the government of Saudi Arabia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 117038.35307799993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "saudi arabia us",
        "usa"
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    {
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      "question": "Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "May 22: An official announcement by the named country restricting U.S. military aircraft airspace access or base use, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 1, 2026, 12:21 PM ET, resolves Yes; otherwise No.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-24T09:53:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 22648.81632900001,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7KB23L72P7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V7W8T6VMN4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd69278d0e73aa1db4520dba8fb48a0a00a2dfd04e7df26b347bbf3875e5d7393",
      "question": "Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will n",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: An official announcement by the named country restricting U.S. military aircraft airspace access or base use, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 1, 2026, 12:21 PM ET, resolves Yes; otherwise No.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.\n\nA consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "score": 30,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 450.802166,
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7KB23L72P7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XPD46VT1L1",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-05-24T09:53:09Z",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V7W8T6VMN4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}