{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
  "slug": "sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026",
  "question": "Will SBF be released from custody by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "sbf",
    "criminal-justice",
    "crypto",
    "2026",
    "appeal-or-pardon"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Sam Bankman-Fried exits federal custody by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome directly. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing U.S. Bureau of Prisons records or court documents. No cross-platform structure exists here; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1WW4642528",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.059,
    "implied_probability": 0.059
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1WW4642528",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5f18a2399d214215045b9e9e9ae2b565c00dd6313a2b853999aaad2dc9fbf85e",
      "question": "SBF released from custody in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons or court records determine whether Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.059,
      "implied_probability": 0.059,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 444353.17047200043,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CA43F97CDE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "custody",
        "ftx",
        "legal",
        "sam bankman fried",
        "sbf"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}