{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
  "slug": "second-best-ai-lab-end-of-august-20260720230627650",
  "question": "Will the second-best AI lab be determined by the end of August?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "ai-rankings",
    "tech",
    "anthropic",
    "competitive-positioning"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which AI lab ranks second on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard Labs column as of August 31, 2026. Each binary contract names a specific lab; the full set covers roughly 32 candidates including Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, Meta, DeepSeek, and others. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against a single snapshot taken at 12:00 on August 31, 2026. The leaderboard is published by arena.ai, making it the authoritative source for resolution; any methodology change before that date would be a material resolution risk.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C355YJHF96",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.3,
    "implied_probability": 0.3
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FV99JXSF08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8efdd65223783bb06c85ff8db116a76eb435ac7514a6bb9a0fe7b30e9531e63",
      "question": "Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthropic: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 1847.6404369999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-AE95376093",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZ958X2WM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5934e7c6ff7815fcf8333b25a667ea05f361053244a5b6a75e3c60534fb095bb",
      "question": "Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Meta: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 79.173912,
      "volume_total_usd": 3024.928731,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B506FD6FC2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C355YJHF96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfdcff4f909625aac66f78123d5db6419472ef6ddca3244720336024236d4b58c",
      "question": "Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Google: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 60,
      "volume_total_usd": 11440.606418,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1C15E8BC4F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3ZNJ3M1K54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x26111fc515bce79a110819684ef2da6e0a3f6523a7d1b3776549d4102fe4a5ac",
      "question": "Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alibaba: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 613.19768,
      "volume_total_usd": 3920.3591779999997,
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      "question_id": "CMX-6713A47E52",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P5P8L60N87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd364897a7e14d813bfdb9008e8e66c92a753e73106209ac5c9df986dc98dbe72",
      "question": "Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Moonshot: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 76,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "question_id": "CMX-83287B1130",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4MC4PXYKD5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y4P932L3F2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5ec9a913afeeb118397ff4e29d48b47528529c57f729b284f995ccd004862e5",
      "question": "Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the l",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI: The listed company's rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard Labs column on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET determines the outcome.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3D6SC1JGJ3",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab filtered for \"Labs\" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Lab Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for \"Labs\" will be used to resolve this market.\n\nAI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"Other\".",
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