{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHYT29QKW0",
  "slug": "sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-extradited-to-us-by",
  "question": "Will Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha be extradited to the US in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "mexico-us-relations",
    "extradition",
    "sinaloa-cartel",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha will be extradited to the United States by two separate deadlines. The May 15 market prices near-term extradition probability; the June 30 market prices an extended window. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A June 30 resolution implies the May 15 outcome is a strict subset of the June 30 outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SKDNTNM748",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.004,
    "implied_probability": 0.004
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6444PD258",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHYT29QKW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x603b54737c0573fa3b0f9a808856f6147c0f122d0ddef59859287371312deb49",
      "question": "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.\n\nAn announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ord",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.\n\nAn announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Rubén Rocha Moya",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the United States government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "relevant courts",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 138.14999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 80010.82273400003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extradition",
        "mexico",
        "rocha",
        "ruben rocha extradition",
        "sinaloa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKDNTNM748",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GHYT29QKW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc7570cb6cfd6d61bb5fc02823ea795b508738424d7edd6c9f693b89f5e1fcc17",
      "question": "Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.\n\nAn announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, orde",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-16T06:48:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify.\n\nAn announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Rubén Rocha Moya",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "the United States government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "relevant courts",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 180938.9117019999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "extradition",
        "mexico",
        "rocha",
        "ruben rocha extradition",
        "sinaloa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6444PD258",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKDNTNM748",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-16T06:48:09Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-GHYT29QKW0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}