{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
  "slug": "spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes",
  "question": "Will SpaceX's closing market capitalization on its initial public offering be at or below the lowest strike price by December 31, 2027?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex-ipo",
    "market-cap-valuation",
    "tech",
    "2027",
    "lowest-strikes"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track SpaceX's implied equity valuation at IPO day closing price, with resolution deadline December 31, 2027. Eight Polymarket binary contracts span discrete market cap tiers from below $500B to above $1T, plus a no-IPO outcome. All eight resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The tier structure prices valuation magnitude, not IPO probability, making the no-IPO contract the structural hedge against the entire strike ladder.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T17ZT952P5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RHF0SP9X25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61ab8a9019da7012cacf68afadd484ca68bcecde8f53f5426fbf4c174e2de623",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "500B–600B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3350.934,
      "volume_total_usd": 370571.8006869994,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 550000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA6F5D9C71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TT0FWBMG69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x36f44c4409cd8e1e3aab863f9692bac2d78073b33b3b10cb10a2685ba1ad94b4",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "900B–1T: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7146.494166,
      "volume_total_usd": 545570.3646429998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 950000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA6F5D9C71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B3CQWL7907",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc7af6cffebfc1c0d3b19d66a2495a19a12b41a63af98e40d70f2bc710c7f1561",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<500B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 830.5260000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 438328.1347469997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 500000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7041CDC2FB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LX7RLXWMQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82776e1d30f29cec9b99f63f4d821527bbfc028af995381cff815074a10ff167",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "800B–900B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17868.365852,
      "volume_total_usd": 593947.9211630017,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 850000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA6F5D9C71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1ZVY13NT05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x41ac836a825fc356c6003e736e25015c07871c04f8fbdb9a57f635acab77c1c8",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "600B–700B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4664.414,
      "volume_total_usd": 345063.53726900066,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 650000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA6F5D9C71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T17ZT952P5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdafaa73301e394d19a14c3f1b220d3e27eee7cc042fe4e694c102ba9292ec49e",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1T+: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37548.504249,
      "volume_total_usd": 789070.9527569981,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6490D3F230",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51DYY0NKK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2a7eaf49150dd8eb4ac5901eebb9fdce52a84093e3c7336213c4c8aaa1e70dd5",
      "question": "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "700B–800B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1778.975,
      "volume_total_usd": 414426.1994529997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 750000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA6F5D9C71",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W7JWVTCP55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa53fdef6047fbcdd3bf305ad19851a3bcf28eda72bdd31039f45cb8fa379f747",
      "question": "Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ba",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO before 2028: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 31653.796,
      "volume_total_usd": 697171.310417002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDA74E2A24",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RHF0SP9X25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TT0FWBMG69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B3CQWL7907",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LX7RLXWMQ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1ZVY13NT05",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T17ZT952P5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51DYY0NKK0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W7JWVTCP55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZRCS7Y2668",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}