{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
  "slug": "spacex-ipo-closing-share-price-20260607171825124",
  "question": "Will SpaceX have an initial public offering with a closing share price announced by June 13, 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "spacex-ipo",
    "financials",
    "tech-equity",
    "2026-event",
    "public-markets",
    "space-industry"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether SpaceX completes an IPO with a closing share price announced by June 13, 2026. Five markets price discrete first-day closing price tiers (under $100, $100-$150, $150-$200, $200-$250, $250+); one market prices the binary outcome of no IPO before 2028. The structural difference: tier markets price the IPO valuation level, while the sixth market prices the absence of any IPO event. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-THBZVZW6D1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LX5VRMD3G8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x283768eb44603279a1359a087fc4fd32c565d572d0f3be2b088c62047943fb95",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100-$150: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 52425.41797600001,
      "volume_total_usd": 60222.25663499998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-3368793B19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "share price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex closing share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWLG48WX90",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7c435e3ac0bbdfbc3f3ab1ef420599c499f2d96ef3331bd6af2db13295ac2334",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$150-$200: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 37675.46226300001,
      "volume_total_usd": 43170.78600499997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 150,
      "question_id": "CMX-3368793B19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "share price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex closing share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFRM0VH6J6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x34eb7515ebe984506b2e42ee105ebbdf0cf0a3e10de731bc39a7503a091fd558",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$250+: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26518.849421000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 32285.048448999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 250,
      "question_id": "CMX-0084FF5077",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "share price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex closing share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-THBZVZW6D1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xba1d0ba27c4c257db10af44916f33a2cacd4ca59037db22494e884a038e2b3c3",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200-$250: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 56776.412771,
      "volume_total_usd": 64184.82781900001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 200,
      "question_id": "CMX-3368793B19",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "share price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex closing share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W2KKTQX828",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6af271daf427fc0cd62c0c30600506f2390e1a4aa918fc4b26d611c6c39cbe87",
      "question": "Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO before 2028: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 179,
      "volume_total_usd": 3765.3311000000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDA74E2A24",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "spacex",
        "spacex ipo occurrence"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51KVD24LD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x55bf83ea372f1b6bdbb6d53b7e8435f821f2fe3dff2b173812cd6a5eeb7c1b8f",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<$100: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 24925.584960999993,
      "volume_total_usd": 34076.29787299998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-77651AED55",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "share price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex closing share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TWLG48WX90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:40:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XFRM0VH6J6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:15:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-THBZVZW6D1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:15:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LX5VRMD3G8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:14:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-51KVD24LD7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:14:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W2KKTQX828",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T18:01:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}