{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
  "slug": "spacex-ipo-opening-share-price-20260609222037808",
  "question": "Will SpaceX's initial public offering opening share price be announced by 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "spacex-ipo",
    "stock-price",
    "tech",
    "finance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets collectively track SpaceX's IPO opening share price across discrete strike thresholds, plus a binary on whether no IPO occurs before 2028. The price-tier markets cover four contiguous bands below $250 and one open-ended band at $250 or above, letting traders express a view on the full opening-price distribution. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with a June 13, 2026 deadline. The no-IPO contract is structurally distinct: it prices the probability of a non-event, while the price-band contracts price specific rate levels conditional on the IPO occurring.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JY7N53RY68",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JY7N53RY68",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33e30a6c852e307cc8aaa61afed1a8dcbb00d24124e54860c1a43b9dae5719be",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$150-$200: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 129571.36423600008,
      "volume_total_usd": 131154.85140900008,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 150,
      "question_id": "CMX-AA5836701D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "opening price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex opening share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9X35R3YMF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d843457b9b06ea4fc98928f3806ad8a89e4d5d04e2008184c18b89a16cce3ec",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100-$150: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 83992.04157100002,
      "volume_total_usd": 85229.00306700003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-AA5836701D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "opening price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex opening share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJ72SL80D2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf9f11ff653943b60c7176bf7d997e5fbe8742e0d2c25a9af680f95fc87e4d771",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200-$250: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 113021.43638900001,
      "volume_total_usd": 114239.373468,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 200,
      "question_id": "CMX-2CF9A2A398",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "opening price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex opening share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-64YSCBRMG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe3b4250de66c0af3961de493f1b28d2b8e512ec547428fef759ce1cf53b296a4",
      "question": "Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO before 2028: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2335,
      "volume_total_usd": 2825.79605,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CDA74E2A24",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "spacex",
        "spacex ipo occurrence"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1KTCVFKYQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8cdce1b33758c3593c2b5a1f880fe1dfc4b414b3876833d79099a80bdbb90236",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$250+: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 105676.61892599994,
      "volume_total_usd": 107820.6039809999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 250,
      "question_id": "CMX-916217EDF6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "opening price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex opening share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KPMR2R2L1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82dc48be103a8d81007c9374113f1e243e01fedc3426bcad391badc8f5d419ce",
      "question": "Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<$100: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before 2028\".\n\nThe opening share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIf no official opening price for SpaceX’s first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 82,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 68548.75053400005,
      "volume_total_usd": 69460.47669600004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 100,
      "question_id": "CMX-3E4809B866",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "opening price",
        "spacex",
        "spacex opening share"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JY7N53RY68",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T23:25:54Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6KPMR2R2L1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:18:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1KTCVFKYQ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:17:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJ72SL80D2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:16:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9X35R3YMF2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:15:34Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-64YSCBRMG0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T18:01:03Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YW6VWYXBJ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}