{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
  "slug": "spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949",
  "question": "Will SpaceX conduct an IPO with a Bell Ceremony?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "spacex-ipo",
    "bell-ceremony",
    "2026",
    "tech",
    "finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which named individuals will appear on-stage at SpaceX's IPO bell ceremony on its first trading day. All 18 contracts are binary, Polymarket-native, and resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026. The markets are structurally independent; each individual is priced separately, allowing traders to express views on the full ceremony composition. No single-platform structural contrast exists here, as all markets share identical binary mechanics.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ9KTGW5C8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5JQQZFT8R4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8dfbd9d4cb558ee3abf7acab9b139fa3b8dcfe32fa399b1b0801de80ef1a87fb",
      "question": "Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Grimes: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2420.5845830000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 6430.406116,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-65NCTR3610",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6083813ca2c896eb387429e03d7eb8a88a9641b53d6620533ab2fb6485d4461",
      "question": "Will Ashley St. Clair be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ashley St. Clair: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1634.841,
      "volume_total_usd": 1786.9882499999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJDFLQ6Z02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac0980f79cc9025567d72cfb8f92926d47a3fd137d225ff1e98481955a345038",
      "question": "Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Vivian Wilson: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2341.016332,
      "volume_total_usd": 2628.012132,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D688WKJR63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfde22a478a60193a260d846ca80139a58758e13bb2dab7a52c2a1c7edafb104d",
      "question": "Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Juncosa: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 4972.071864,
      "volume_total_usd": 8797.947727,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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        "spacex ipo who"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7WZW4T1B67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb495d8fa96e5693b13b404650807b19ded6d38732a2e495ea018bf26db6156c9",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Elon Musk: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 53354.393194,
      "volume_total_usd": 58272.91569900003,
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
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      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-12133JBSY9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe1b8082c9b82970151dd18f3ec549a670ea753c0415ccc9d0ad929853594d7d5",
      "question": "Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shivon Zilis: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 2644.117466,
      "volume_total_usd": 8792.978795,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ST5TXSSV12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c91df240285fe87ac06d52ff5257681bafed60f36093a52c72d15b5732d5ed8",
      "question": "Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Antonio Gracias: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3318.142486,
      "volume_total_usd": 10177.108905999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3S6HZ75N99",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbe4cef5e49074a8c2781a60612c34340a72e2f1044616431973c674192716189",
      "question": "Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Steve Jurvetson: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1810.773175,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QS5XTCZ1R9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x820002b1c757853fa7887be53bd89a2fd8a0734a2665ebf1753409abdaf7fece",
      "question": "Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Gwynne Shotwell: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 29210.822918,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-76FTF4Q448",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1a6ccf163a060a0fa74550ffc32942bef0b91e6b1bb211c338f82490e478c6e1",
      "question": "Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "X Æ A-Xii: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8156.172277999999,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJ9KTGW5C8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ef4772a1863e5c0352cd673b94bd73a99044b42c2c83360eeb7f36119c5a875",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Donald Trump: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "photo and video",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 70960.97099,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F8VZBZF8P9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x660c5de4f4580d8faa32c4fc305dba95742e004964c3403c6a0437b06cef1640",
      "question": "Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bret Johnsen: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3893.173405,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NFRJ0JKGT4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33194e09cc8f4b1d37773ce685505ed8c2890b9a296bde49acdb6a0f7c641c19",
      "question": "Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Brian Bjelde: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3089.815277,
      "volume_total_usd": 6327.534299999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LGRDZWZ374",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbd4b5b5c8a8347829ce31a82b5fa9af6edff0e095d3b95f678ecb5649a2ec584",
      "question": "Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Hasan Piker: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "photo and video",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2866.953,
      "volume_total_usd": 3830.3748969999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex ipo who"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KH0BD4S7F2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9bd5ff4cc8e4ee4cc3e6c87f62f8990d3a22c01743c4eb3dfcc2d75e9e7902f8",
      "question": "Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jonathan Hofeller: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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    {
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      "question": "Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1798.770953,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1c529386665a7e895e0c0a03218dd37fe712778019520a3406c196808d124ffc",
      "question": "Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Kimbal Musk: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-13T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q73P2WYHG0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x20cb039b96a23f7b0d84827b0ca4ba22edbe904fbecc56bc967b70d7aeafaaf8",
      "question": "Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purp",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Barron Trump: SpaceX's primary exchange bell ceremony on its first trading day, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determines whether the named individual was on-stage in-person.",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nBell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to \"No\" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.\n\nA qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.\n\nBeing “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-17T02:29:28.45615Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "outcome": "NO",
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    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXCCBY83V6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T22:07:34Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3S6HZ75N99",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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