{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-48QVS0VR25",
  "slug": "spacex-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap",
  "question": "Will SpaceX or OpenAI have a higher IPO market cap?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex",
    "openai",
    "ipo-valuation",
    "tech-finance",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks which company, SpaceX or OpenAI, achieves a higher market capitalization on its respective IPO first trading day. Resolution depends on both companies completing public listings before December 31, 2027. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle determines the outcome using official closing capitalizations from each company's first trading day. Neither IPO is confirmed, creating substantial resolution risk if either listing does not occur within the window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2449HYVXQ9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.97,
    "implied_probability": 0.97
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2449HYVXQ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-48QVS0VR25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1fa4a85c1e3e06ed612945394a77758565a04239e0f8a8e2d8dfb75b745e020b",
      "question": "SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The official closing market capitalizations of SpaceX and OpenAI on their respective first trading days following IPOs completed by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.\n- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 64,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.97,
      "implied_probability": 0.97,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.03,
      "volume_total_usd": 11017.365043000009,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A5D426CCE9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "comparison",
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "openai",
        "spacex",
        "spacex openai ipo"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-48QVS0VR25",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}