{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
  "slug": "spacex-starship-flight-test-14",
  "question": "Will SpaceX conduct Starship Flight Test 14?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex",
    "starship",
    "space-exploration",
    "launch-timeline",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 across launch timing and vehicle recovery outcomes. Three deadline markets price launch probability at sequential monthly cutoffs through August 2026. Four outcome markets price discrete mission events: Super Heavy booster explosion, Starship splashdown success, and mechanical arm catches of each vehicle. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against observed mission telemetry and SpaceX reporting.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GGTDQ82872",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0,
    "as_of": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GGTDQ82872",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x80cc728ebde94714126b057d969cd4902da396a753b2cd2af3e89d498e0d3957",
      "question": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?",
      "description": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1223.2879400000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 3698.1162280000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BC0B804D80",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T5XTXH4X53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0eb7539d08d0ae47d3af023b3c2d243a9c230b0c035251e0d8fe347c630c8570",
      "question": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?",
      "description": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.92,
      "implied_probability": 0.92,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 861.3080600000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 3533.451478,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C786B37A92",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9L41LR3GV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xda19903324fcfa8490e5b7ec91ea359fc72d9ddbe3231090f4b9823a676cb61c",
      "question": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?",
      "description": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.96,
      "implied_probability": 0.96,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.04165,
      "volume_total_usd": 21.04165,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-06705EDC8B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J0FLFHD3S4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc98841eb384753965425e2cb2265571b8d1da93a40ee3d9e45b987298c1a122d",
      "question": "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).\n\nIf the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Super Heavy booster explodes?: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).\n\nIf the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.87,
      "implied_probability": 0.87,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2225.767595,
      "volume_total_usd": 2225.767595,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A77441A022",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship",
        "superheavy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9SNC927V31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ced02fa76f0eedd45811916fb44b2c151075c03c4f1c22c8bff7b18980b2b12",
      "question": "Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThis market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Successful splash down?: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThis market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.12359,
      "volume_total_usd": 228.50787400000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D1BFF5DAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "splashdown",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1W058KTF3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x57f7018e54cbaee24f4c9bf7403718d38262daa49602d1c346c7825716b6ca5f",
      "question": "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
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            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.057,
      "implied_probability": 0.057,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 523.697591,
      "volume_total_usd": 781.697591,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D1BFF5DAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "catch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship",
        "superheavy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N9W5N211R8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2c9195043cf23814124eac7ef5f4cf46e17d1bea69a122880cb9d36bd7337e06",
      "question": "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the lan",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Chopsticks catch Starship?: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.\n\nThis market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "youtube.com",
            "url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1499.648206,
      "volume_total_usd": 1948.520427,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8D1BFF5DAB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "catch",
        "spacex",
        "spacex starship flight",
        "starship"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null,
      "last_checked_at": null,
      "reconciled_at": "2026-09-18T11:18:07.222Z"
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GGTDQ82872",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T06:04:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-09-17T20:26:28.523Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}