{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
  "slug": "spx-close-dec-2026",
  "question": "Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp-500",
    "spx",
    "index-level",
    "year-end-2026",
    "us-equities"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the S&P 500 official closing price on the final trading day of December 2026. Polymarket structures the event as six discrete strike-level bins ranging from below 6,000 to above 8,000. Each bin is a binary contract; together they form an implied distribution over the index level. S&P Dow Jones Indices is the authoritative price source, and resolution runs through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4H07LBWHR9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.11
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4H07LBWHR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd9bdd7fbf3ba219c649424fa62180bfe139865ade439f5a48010d5e2c3980241",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) \"Close\" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under \"Historical Prices.\"",
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      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": "CMX-A47D48E0CF",
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      "question": "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$6,000-$6,500: S&P 500 official closing price on the final trading day of December 2026, as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, determines which bracket outcome resolves YES.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) \"Close\" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under \"Historical Prices.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_total_usd": 1936.792276,
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        {
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          "price": 0.12
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        {
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          "price": 0.12
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        {
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        {
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        {
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      "tags": [
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        "equities",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SZVN8JKTR9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x59c232818d18dc18c01a4b8d9f0e04633fc0b18af23d4ded122d0d8486e2d567",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$6,500-$7,000: S&P 500 official closing price on the final trading day of December 2026, as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, determines which bracket outcome resolves YES.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) \"Close\" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under \"Historical Prices.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3465.540246000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "question_id": "CMX-A71D25CB0C",
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        {
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        {
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        {
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfbc623fb186ea1a331a5d8d0dbb5064865a86feca44361dea42bdfaf09e445df",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$8,000: S&P 500 official closing price on the final trading day of December 2026, as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, determines which bracket outcome resolves YES.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) \"Close\" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under \"Historical Prices.\"",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "finance.yahoo.com",
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            "name": "Yahoo Finance",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Yahoo Finance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4.61,
      "volume_total_usd": 3509.012670000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8000,
      "question_id": "CMX-53463F98F9",
      "also_on": [
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          "venue": "kalshi",
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          "price": 0.13
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      "tags": [
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        "equities",
        "index",
        "spx"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8X50ZXTD62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7988f38c0e67179d5d982b3ad7e7f04ef86d746ae94f6fca3bdc47101837d4a1",
      "question": "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$7,000-$7,500: S&P 500 official closing price on the final trading day of December 2026, as published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, determines which bracket outcome resolves YES.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "implied_probability": 0.24,
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      "volume_total_usd": 1895.7685490000001,
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      "description": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) \"Close\" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under \"Historical Prices.\"",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_of_record": "Yahoo Finance",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3055.6832860000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A71D25CB0C",
      "also_on": [
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          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-GDZLZV6253",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
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        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
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          "venue": "kalshi",
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        {
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}