{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1T3CVS19Q2",
  "slug": "spy-up-or-down-on-august-4-2026",
  "question": "Will SPY close higher on August 4 than it closed on August 3?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "sp-500",
    "equity-price-movement",
    "daily-resolution",
    "us-markets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks the directional move of SPY on August 4, 2026. Resolution compares SPY's closing price on August 4 against the prior trading day's close. The authoritative price source is SPY's reported closing price, with settlement via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8S4D9PPWY5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.985,
    "implied_probability": 0.985
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8S4D9PPWY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1T3CVS19Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x37d39857791798bd42c31f08fd4809d783f70b5498174449ac95cf9bb6c56b40",
      "question": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 4?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specifi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "SPY's closing price on August 4, 2026 compared to its closing price on the most recent prior trading day, as reported by market data providers.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIf S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nFor a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth \"Close\" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.\n\nIf either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.\n\nOnly prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the \"Close\" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "pythdata.app",
            "url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "pythdata.app",
            "url": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Pyth",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "primary exchange",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Pyth",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.985,
      "implied_probability": 0.985,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23106.619147999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 23106.619147999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3014161C9E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "direction",
        "equities",
        "etf",
        "spy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-1T3CVS19Q2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}