{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-56LRJL3JK2",
  "slug": "sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by",
  "question": "Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudan civil war by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "sudan",
    "conflict-resolution",
    "ceasefire",
    "2025",
    "africa"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a formal ceasefire will be reached in the Sudan civil war by four sequential deadlines: December 31, 2025, March 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Each later deadline implies the prior one resolved No, creating a cascade structure where prices should rise monotonically across the tenor. The December 31, 2025 deadline has a resolve_at of January 1, 2026, indicating that market has already settled. All four markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-54GDQP8MR8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xfb88e571910b761d4adbb19372c74ad8f93f9b130193ed98913f0dfa39c177b6",
      "question": "Sudan civil war ceasefire in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace de",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T10:17:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Sudan civil war ceasefire by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T10:06:57Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.",
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      "question": "Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.",
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      "last_price": 0.002,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.",
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