{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XHTHRWQH55",
  "slug": "supreme-court-vacancy-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "supreme-court",
    "us-government",
    "judicial-vacancies",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy occurs in calendar year 2026. Resolution relies on official U.S. Government announcements, interpreted through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform divergence exists. The binary outcome resolves by December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RG0QWP9R43",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.31,
    "implied_probability": 0.31
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RG0QWP9R43",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XHTHRWQH55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4bfb8b7fd515c8a4371ef6fc48289bae5b2736252aa6b710e6edaeeb26d96e3b",
      "question": "Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the U.S. Government regarding Supreme Court vacancies occurring between January 1 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  ",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from the U.S. Government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18745.533621999988,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "supreme court",
        "supreme court vacancy",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XHTHRWQH55",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}