{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
  "slug": "surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will Surf FDV exceed ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "2028",
    "post-launch-metrics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of Surf's governance token one day after its launch. FDV is calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price source. All five markets are structured as binary strike thresholds at $50M, $100M, $200M, $300M, and $500M. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with the $50M strike serving as the lowest implied floor.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7WZ44LF8V7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.62,
    "implied_probability": 0.62
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7WZ44LF8V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd048b3e9ccad82c57a4eec953e75794aeb5e6d0e08bdb79b9e01b24e0049f16d",
      "question": "Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$50M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves versus the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 64.38,
      "volume_total_usd": 87737.19178700003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 50000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-09FE5E15DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "surf",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DJGWRDH8R0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x88310713845c54e36f29791a1c2dc172b9819b645ba82d5f87560805cd2bb788",
      "question": "Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves versus the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11692.551649,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A6D786DC3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "surf",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9ZHC111VH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xffcab88076a28795281bb07a082c7003a4ff5671420086cb16ec09dfbf9aea68",
      "question": "Surf FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves versus the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 64.94,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7BBFECFEB0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "surf",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQVNNK6J30",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x64a5bcfb0c76a75081c8be49c895a976d506fce8d21aa9d73f1099e502f2fa4e",
      "question": "Surf FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves versus the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 328.060007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-47F3E67B68",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "surf",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P0FSXY1QF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8babe4f4d0eff732d660fa02929a581cb8478ed2a1696c158290b2794d3d7ac0",
      "question": "Surf FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a to",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The governance token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves versus the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 241.27463699999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-99178949DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "surf",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3VVHL8Q7V1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}