{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSJ5P9KLZ0",
  "slug": "tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will a tariff increase on Canada be in effect by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "trump",
    "economy",
    "politics",
    "tariffs",
    "us-canada"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a U.S. tariff increase on Canada takes effect by specified deadlines. The June 30, 2026 market prices near-term implementation risk; the December 31, 2026 market prices full-year resolution. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The tiered structure isolates whether timing, not just occurrence, is the tradeable variable.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LGVQL9NBT2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.018,
    "implied_probability": 0.018
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3C4PJJ5SK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSJ5P9KLZ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x60a79d630c5dec26e7f94440bd23c5912a15b2c28687b5206bd3907e38f8924a",
      "question": "Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nOnly tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nA general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.76,
      "implied_probability": 0.76,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 505.60838700000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-402889CE8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "canada tariff increase",
        "tariff",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LGVQL9NBT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSJ5P9KLZ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33",
      "question": "Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?",
      "description": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date of t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T07:34:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nFor the purpose of this market, \"goes into effect\" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.\n\nOnly tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nThe general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nA general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.\n\nThis market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "reuters.com",
            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the Trump administration",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 44248.60165199997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-56DA018F68",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "canada",
        "canada tariff increase",
        "tariff",
        "trade"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LGVQL9NBT2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-02T07:34:50Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BSJ5P9KLZ0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}