{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0Q5Q21QD3",
  "slug": "tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026",
  "question": "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech-layoffs",
    "labor-market",
    "employment",
    "ai-economy",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether information-sector layoffs rise or fall in 2026 relative to 2025. The authoritative data source is the Federal Reserve Economic Data series JTU5100LDL, published by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle upon settlement in February 2027. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform divergence exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LSM7RW9S78",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.84,
    "implied_probability": 0.84
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LSM7RW9S78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0Q5Q21QD3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74f19011005f2f2b1f12aa4ffc9efbec07f07d076045201b3912abcfbe9898bd",
      "question": "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.\n\nIf not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.\n\nRevisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series JTU5100LDL reports layoffs in the information sector for 2026 versus 2025.",
      "close_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.\n\nIf not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.\n\nRevisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).\n\nChanges in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25689.083136,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F30EF41775",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "employment",
        "layoffs",
        "tech sector layoffs",
        "technology"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K0Q5Q21QD3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}