{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2CLPLTTYR2",
  "slug": "tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Tesla and SpaceX announce an official merger in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "mergers-acquisitions",
    "tesla",
    "spacex",
    "elon-musk"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Tesla and SpaceX will announce a formal merger in 2026. Polymarket structures three sequential binary contracts at June 30, September 30, and December 31 deadlines. Earlier-dated contracts imply probability conditional on a near-term announcement; the December contract is the broadest. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C15CVC6N23",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VVB2NSFPS6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2CLPLTTYR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x85647246dede70416c9c71ea851d87facf4b5efe58c685f4acc5ea94a9487c10",
      "question": "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Tesla or SpaceX",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 160.73904599999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 140456.38275999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F9922F8BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "corporate",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-25MMGNCQB2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2CLPLTTYR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9e7056c4004056441b57f960460c5e4f6d3e6ab9e1633b15538eb909d0f34466",
      "question": "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.03842,
      "volume_total_usd": 355395.747578,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-948B650775",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-RXY0FVGZ70",
          "price": 0.04
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      ],
      "tags": [
        "corporate",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C15CVC6N23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2CLPLTTYR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa8e3a62f9261f3f12287d41bea9ca4efea4d221aae79bc0cec695bb1882bb7b3",
      "question": "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:45:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Tesla or SpaceX",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 606999.673596,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-45FB785142",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-4L32PMVG85",
          "price": 0.01
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      ],
      "tags": [
        "corporate",
        "merger",
        "spacex",
        "tesla",
        "tesla spacex merger"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C15CVC6N23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:45:35Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2CLPLTTYR2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}