{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YG67F2S0Z5",
  "slug": "teslaoptimus-26dec31",
  "question": "Will Tesla Optimus be released this year?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "tesla-optimus",
    "robotics-humanoid",
    "product-release",
    "2026",
    "consumer-availability"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot becomes commercially available for purchase before January 1, 2027. Kalshi prices a binary outcome on commercial availability, resolving via Kalshi staff determination against Tesla's official announcements and communications. A single platform covers this event, so no cross-platform structural contrast applies. Resolution hinges on what constitutes a genuine commercial sale versus a limited demonstration or internal deployment.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-B85H2X9X27",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B85H2X9X27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YG67F2S0Z5",
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "TESLAOPTIMUS-26DEC31",
      "question": "Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?",
      "description": "Before 2027",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USD",
      "underlying_reference": "Tesla's official announcements and communications determine whether Optimus is commercially available for purchase before December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If the Tesla Optimus (or another humanoid robot) is on sale to the general public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
        "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
        "proposer": "platform_staff",
        "source": "Tesla",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tesla.com/blog",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Tesla",
            "url": "https://www.tesla.com/blog",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Tesla",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": "authoritative",
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 108.8234,
      "volume_total_usd": 45729.45160000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-24CBB4AFCF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "commercialization",
        "optimus",
        "robotics",
        "tesla",
        "tesla optimus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": [
        {
          "regime": "ciro-26-0076",
          "screen_version": "v1",
          "status": "not_eligible",
          "reasons": [
            "category_not_permitted"
          ],
          "bucket": null,
          "screened_at": "2026-06-12"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YG67F2S0Z5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}