{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-33LV7DM5R6",
  "slug": "thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966",
  "question": "Will Thailand strike Cambodia by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "southeast-asia",
    "military-conflict",
    "thailand-cambodia",
    "2026",
    "cross-border"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Thailand conducts a military strike against Cambodia within specified windows. The January 31, 2026 market resolved at February 1, 2026; the June 30, 2026 market remains open. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The two contracts together form a sequential binary structure pricing near-term versus medium-term escalation risk.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WVL6CPL805",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C33G8R9V7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33LV7DM5R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf6481ad3cae76f67602cfc130a0cd903e0cd187a0dfa0829d1a951855e80f45c",
      "question": "Thailand strikes Cambodia by January 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T09:58:48Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 44412.677854,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambodia",
        "conflict",
        "military",
        "thailand",
        "thailand military strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WVL6CPL805",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-33LV7DM5R6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa034dea15732928b29345412b50134cb6f54b4fc5aa2732b7ee32eb723113d2a",
      "question": "Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 826.0573300000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 134827.1697959999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambodia",
        "conflict",
        "military",
        "thailand",
        "thailand military strike"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WVL6CPL805",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C33G8R9V7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-01T09:58:48Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-33LV7DM5R6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}