{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
  "slug": "theo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will Theo's fully diluted valuation exceed ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "fdv-valuation",
    "theo",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Theo's fully diluted valuation one day after token launch. Each Polymarket binary asks whether FDV clears a discrete strike: $100M, $300M, $700M, or $1B. The spread across strikes functions as an implied FDV distribution, letting traders isolate probability mass between thresholds. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, computing FDV as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D0L26DTN50",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.51,
    "implied_probability": 0.51
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D0L26DTN50",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x54f6212ba2469a110b62dad45e4dc318a3eb28a9b7db6309d8b81965355356b7",
      "question": "Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The referenced token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 64791.02312899991,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2677A9E7DD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8143LS47M8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f244feac2d3eb2914c37523766733e6baf647f9238f94999cc184c86855f989",
      "question": "Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The referenced token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": 133.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 21371.583733000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4910A74CC8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XCKJHDSWS4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xba30e5d26c0a2086c7c4bf464fe5c8bf0378a3395f687c571c2d09bc42769db8",
      "question": "Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$700M: The referenced token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 16412.492031000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 700000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA2D61ED42",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-850Z5NN3K8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61b0073fb93a098758faefea2a50ea8777584aaa2f4f37157b1a75fb3fb780d9",
      "question": "Theo FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The referenced token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET one calendar day after public launch, resolves against the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.075,
      "implied_probability": 0.075,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.7,
      "volume_total_usd": 12927.987843999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DD4755142A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-S7TK6BX074",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}