{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
  "slug": "toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545",
  "question": "Will a new mayor be elected in Toronto by the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "canada",
    "toronto",
    "municipal-election",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the Toronto mayoral election on October 26, 2026. Polymarket structures each candidate as a separate binary contract; together they form an exhaustive, mutually exclusive set covering named candidates plus an \"other\" catch-all. Placeholder entries labeled Person A through J indicate reserved slots for candidates not yet declared. Resolution across all contracts follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the officially certified election result.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KF7HXD12M4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YS1XFTQ1X1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1295040186326703b63b9c7d719f8c5bb88ee6fa9672e3924f90ef74ee7b0459",
      "question": "Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Olivia Chow: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.88,
      "implied_probability": 0.88,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 304.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 39190.299122000004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "mayor",
        "olivia chow",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KF7HXD12M4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbdfde2fd2472d48a0b126c360eab593687d87208a0f54a89079680af25007e92",
      "question": "Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brad Bradford: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 582.52,
      "volume_total_usd": 38875.957082999994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JT58F0TTR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7b4ffca1b17b0a23c07d52bb7f65b7331cbcabeec04ff6397ac058708daff40",
      "question": "Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Ana Bailão: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 11358.429601,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "ana bail",
        "election",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9F19L0SB48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91f8b502136cfc251395f237c6a02fe050ef4ab166758894d27a230308ed991c",
      "question": "Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Michael Ford: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T07:00:43.371Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 11985.774377,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "mayor",
        "michael ford",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72TJVYP0S0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6bc524ffd762f834357072923abe48110ad6a117fd5cf2d52077175f5851114b",
      "question": "Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthony Furey: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 8843.882483,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "anthony furey",
        "election",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QZ2D6M2GD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d991d554fb684be902709e2589b23338e376deee8e2baf7808dec07737b3dc5",
      "question": "Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Marco Mendicino: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 37.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 16118.831695,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "election",
        "marco mendicino",
        "mayor",
        "toronto"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2TD11QFV24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07aecfdb8b93c2d9ee827358f7623b83cc8b1462d6e7386d4430b85b69522653",
      "question": "Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to off",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "John Tory: The named candidate who is elected and becomes the next mayor of Toronto following the October 26, 2026 election, as determined by credible media consensus, resolves the market by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Toronto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.",
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      "close_at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
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