{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "question": "Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1500000000,
      2000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 800000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200000000,
        "prob": 87
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500000000,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2000000000,
        "prob": 26
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2500000000,
        "prob": 22
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3000000000,
        "prob": 9
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3500000000,
        "prob": 12
      },
      {
        "threshold": 4000000000,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "security-breaches",
    "2026-events",
    "quantitative-threshold",
    "hacks-exploits",
    "digital-assets"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track cumulative 2026 crypto hack losses against nine dollar thresholds. Each Polymarket binary asks whether DefiLlama's reported total crosses a specific level, from $800M to $4B. The nine strikes form an implied probability distribution over the final annual loss figure. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against DefiLlama's hacks page sum, with resolve date of May 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LCJN0LQZS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.26,
    "implied_probability": 0.26
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X542YPXTC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74b5baa837e3defe1f64518b3d7e8a85b626c5243e9239531c31648358bbb6f2",
      "question": "Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$800M: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T16:03:16Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.998,
      "implied_probability": 0.998,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 55626.875547,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-6ECDCBDEB9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7JKXT81CS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x299d3fb09dd5dd3b92ffd996b552ea3e02ffd0ef2514cc00959397171b37fe60",
      "question": "Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$1B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T13:57:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11751.63737900001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1B47BCE9C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NVYB5QQVB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x06530a081f7f7e1725fc4ce73509fe4779e69e9df65c3437218bbb9a21c0cc35",
      "question": "Over $1.2B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$1.2B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.74,
      "implied_probability": 0.74,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 281.629424,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7265BC7401",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5XK79X0SS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8303ac44e90f17593d08bf0ab3f5bdaf0d71b8e59f773beae562fe3dd501f77",
      "question": "Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$1.5B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.47,
      "implied_probability": 0.47,
      "volume_24h_usd": 67.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 3386.586125,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F1FA48E92C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCJN0LQZS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x41a7dc4ce12ab8c4529c8e74023fac32b63404423867b789b49245635c0460b4",
      "question": "Over $2B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$2B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4.1225000000000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E03E47B830",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFBGGLGVP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x86603700e75c78c377b49db69bf73af53ee56c0b64f7cbd7282683e01ee97393",
      "question": "Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$2.5B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.22,
      "implied_probability": 0.22,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 217.74192000000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C5CEB60F9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7MW9Y7TM35",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8084019b7fb72aadb8202bf727b3bb324b559f797caa94df04a08ea4e074c257",
      "question": "Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$3B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "DefiLlama",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "defillama.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 350.98857999999996,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-27E7F099D8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M4HZY870F5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe8ef19709e278299dc3d2d62b924ebd4f489ccbbf9198f5c96c44ed982c3e872",
      "question": "Over $3.5B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$3.5B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 481.796159,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-181CBA9FD9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R21HRQYQX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x78601f54898bf8199833471414e2a9ed4dfd2c424407baeaacb034676d5a8df0",
      "question": "Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks\n\nThe total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.\n\nIf the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.\n\nIf the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": ">$4B: DefiLlama's hacks page sum of all \"Amount lost\" entries dated in 2026 determines if cumulative crypto hack value exceeds the specified threshold by May 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "defillama.com",
            "url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.03,
      "implied_probability": 0.03,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 985.253793,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 4000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D40CD22639",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "crypto",
        "hacks",
        "security",
        "total cryptocurrency hack"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7JKXT81CS7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-16T13:57:41Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X542YPXTC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T16:03:16Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}