{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-N8H4YFBJ94",
  "slug": "total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426",
  "question": "Will there be a total Internet blackout in Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "internet-infrastructure",
    "2026",
    "sanctions-conflict",
    "connectivity-crisis"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Iran experiences a total internet blackout by July 31 and August 31, 2026, respectively. Both are Polymarket binary contracts using the same Cloudflare Radar threshold: total bytes transferred falling to 1.0% or below prior 30-day baseline levels. The July contract closes earlier, making it a near-term directional read; the August contract extends the observation window by one month. Resolution on both uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Cloudflare Radar data.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4YZDBXX5D8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4YZDBXX5D8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N8H4YFBJ94",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3b23853fc8486c33c41582939cb783cfc48fe0d74049524c5b6367758912a114",
      "question": "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). \n\nThe relevant figures for each hour",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Cloudflare Radar data for the referenced country's total bytes transferred falling to 1.0% or less of the preceding four weeks' maximum for at least six consecutive hourly periods by August 1, 2026, 06:29 UTC resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:29:24Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). \n\nThe relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.\n\nOnly the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "radar.cloudflare.com",
            "url": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cloudflare Radar data for Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cloudflare Radar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Iran Traffic trends chart",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Cloudflare Radar",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 53235.06567799999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "infrastructure",
        "internet",
        "iran",
        "iran internet blackout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1S8414R409",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-N8H4YFBJ94",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe46d07045c7c7abff08c961623e5da552575825b7631f1a5d707a103fc1534e9",
      "question": "Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). \n\nThe relevant figures for each hour",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Cloudflare Radar data for the referenced country's total bytes transferred falling to 1.0% or less of the preceding four weeks' maximum for at least six consecutive hourly periods by August 1, 2026, 06:29 UTC resolves this market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). \n\nThe relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.\n\nOnly the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "radar.cloudflare.com",
            "url": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cloudflare Radar data for Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cloudflare Radar",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Iran Traffic trends chart",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Cloudflare Radar",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8675.41777,
      "volume_total_usd": 24547.96702,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "infrastructure",
        "internet",
        "iran",
        "iran internet blackout"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4YZDBXX5D8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:29:24Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-N8H4YFBJ94",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}