{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
  "slug": "trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency",
  "question": "Will Trump declare election interference a national emergency?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "election-interference",
    "national-emergency",
    "2026",
    "executive-action"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Trump formally declares election interference a national emergency. The July 17 market has resolved, settling on 2026-07-25. The December 31 market prices a longer-dated window for the same declaration. Polymarket resolves both via its UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V4VVCHSZR5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.18,
    "as_of": "2026-09-16T20:00:34.006Z"
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29LY4HHB79",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xaa07084b353c5a998c6207e6f5f30d21e2d6d7e63941d1ce49675cc7083d2ed1",
      "question": "Trump declares election interference national emergency by July 17?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedur",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-25T21:05:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.\n\nRenewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "Federal Register",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "implied_probability": 0.002,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2753.750666,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "declaration",
        "election",
        "national emergency",
        "trump",
        "trump election interference"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V4VVCHSZR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting proc",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.\n\nRenewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. \n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 193,
      "volume_total_usd": 195322.71388200004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "election",
        "national emergency",
        "trump",
        "trump election interference"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29LY4HHB79",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-25T21:05:43Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}