{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YV6C06NTY2",
  "slug": "trump-eliminates-capital-gains-tax-on-crypto-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Trump eliminate capital gains tax on crypto by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "crypto",
    "trump",
    "us-tax-policy",
    "regulatory-change",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Trump signs legislation or executive action eliminating capital gains tax on crypto. The 2025 market resolved on January 1, 2026; the 2026 market extends the deadline by one year. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring confirmed presidential signature on qualifying tax law changes. The shorter-dated contract already resolved, creating a natural baseline for pricing the 2026 window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LTNDGL8870",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTNDGL8870",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YV6C06NTY2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6338304dbe9b178decd25c8c2f448d2efbfb810fa5aff4a96512912e56bcff78",
      "question": "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market.\n\nIf capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrenci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named candidate's signature on legislation or executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrency assets, verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T08:43:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market.\n\nIf capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a \"Yes\" resolution for this market.\n\nIf the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of when it takes effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 84260.394113,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-953ED85248",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "tax-policy",
        "us capital gains",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SF7RQ34ZQ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YV6C06NTY2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e685c84773bd018fff4219185b904b2ef194671320f47648121d07d2ae2cc17",
      "question": "Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market.\n\nIf capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrenci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: The named candidate's signature on legislation or executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on cryptocurrency assets, verified by the UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market.\n\nIf capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a \"Yes\" resolution for this market.\n\nIf the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of when it takes effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.034,
      "implied_probability": 0.034,
      "volume_24h_usd": 130.71760400000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 28558.60695,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EAB6B5A41C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "tax-policy",
        "us capital gains",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTNDGL8870",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T08:43:53Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YV6C06NTY2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}