{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CPG7TLWM13",
  "slug": "trump-out-as-president-by-july-31-20260626202639374",
  "question": "Will Trump be out as President by July 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "us-presidency",
    "removal-or-resignation",
    "2026",
    "political-succession"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Donald Trump leaves the presidency by July 31, 2026, via resignation, removal, or any other cessation of office. Only Polymarket is active here; no cross-platform structural contrast applies. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates whether the triggering condition was met by the deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V9NPYCDT36",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.004,
    "implied_probability": 0.004
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V9NPYCDT36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CPG7TLWM13",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcfa8fd6341f3489fabeb6c57aa9c14ab22571a31fb9b3198b0ba0463cefc8509",
      "question": "Trump out as President by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invo",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or ceases to be President by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 297752.55896600004,
      "volume_total_usd": 2213501.2094859798,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "donald trump presidency",
        "political-event",
        "trump",
        "us-presidency"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CPG7TLWM13",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}