{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-723W97VG50",
  "slug": "turkey-rejoins-f-35-program-byptptpt-20260708215709215",
  "question": "Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "turkey-f35",
    "defense-procurement",
    "nato-relations",
    "geopolitics",
    "trump",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Turkey formally rejoins the U.S. F-35 program. The December 2026 contract prices nearer-term resolution; the June 2027 contract prices a six-month extension window. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The spread between the two contracts reflects the market's implied probability of a diplomatic agreement in early 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SY96PKST27",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.11,
    "implied_probability": 0.11
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SY96PKST27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-723W97VG50",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89ce0b1a8f226098928604bdd35eb37cfad6ad6ff38b8754e2da70fcc3c7079e",
      "question": "Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTurkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or\n- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military S",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTurkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or\n- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.\n\nStatements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.\n\nOnce a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "F-35 Joint Program Office",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 70,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 26608.779580000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "defense",
        "f-35",
        "nato",
        "turkey",
        "turkey 35 program"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H6DH2916J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-723W97VG50",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa2803f53115a3da955018e053c51c7138cb2d1fb2a3473102573cdd10a3ffff6",
      "question": "Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTurkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or\n- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military S",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTurkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;\n- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or\n- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.\n\nStatements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.\n\nOnce a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "F-35 Joint Program Office",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "United States federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 70,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 485.23904500000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "defense",
        "f-35",
        "nato",
        "turkey",
        "turkey 35 program"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-723W97VG50",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}