{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4L3KSC60L1",
  "slug": "uae-x-qatar-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the UAE and Qatar sever diplomatic relations by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "gulf-states",
    "diplomatic-relations",
    "middle-east",
    "2026",
    "uae-qatar"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the UAE and Qatar will formally sever diplomatic relations before December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing official announcements from UAE or Qatari government sources. The two states previously cut ties in 2017 before reconciling in 2021, making prior rupture the key historical reference point. No corroborating platform structures this event differently; only a single binary outcome market exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-06QX5VVCC5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-06QX5VVCC5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4L3KSC60L1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b72841d7ddf283c9364cad78288ecc0c4a57822cc742865e7927960d938d6b0",
      "question": "UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from UAE or Qatari government sources regarding suspension of diplomatic relations, or consensus of credible reporting thereof by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 101.23,
      "volume_total_usd": 311162.92102400045,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "qatar",
        "uae",
        "uae qatar diplomatic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4L3KSC60L1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}